The big news of the last two days was Bosch's announcement that it was pulling out of lithium-ion batteries.

Who is likely to be the future mainstream of each technical route of square shell, soft package and cylinder? Pros and cons technological evolution? Is it possible that now the capacity is lagging behind?

1) data of South Korea SNE Research:

Panasonic and PEVE have had steady shipments; LG and SDI both saw their shipments soar as their main models rose. Especially bright eye is fu neng, before the beak can also sell; Byd and AESC are both relatively lonely, the former because the bus was lowered and not covered by the roof.

If looking at the overseas market alone, the overseas market mainly relies on the automobile enterprise to do, the shipments of large panasonic and LGC are dependent on the BEV volume to pull up, so the main battery shipments are very concentrated.

LG chem and samsung SDI ranked second and third in global electric vehicle battery shipments in 2017 (excluding China).

SK Innovation fell from the sixth to the seventh place in 2016. Sales of kia SoulBEV are up, but SKInnovation shipped only 268 megawatt hours in China, less than half of what it shipped in the same period last year.

LG chem supplies batteries for BEV and PHEV models such as hyundai Ionic EV, Chevrolet BOLT and Renault Zoe. Samsung SDI is producing batteries for BEV and PHEV models, including the BMW i3,300e and 530e, and Volkswagen e-golf, which saw sales increase in 2017.

The cylinder keeps flattening out; Before, the price of soft bag was more than that of PHEV. With the advance of star cars like LEAF, ZOE and Bolt, the soft bag was constantly expanded. The square shell was used a lot in China before, and now it is absolutely dominant, but the overall quantity is decreasing. At home, the soft package or to continue to develop.

2) real lithium data from moke:

The total amount of lithium electricity used in domestic passenger vehicles is about 12GWh, including BEV 9.1gwh and PHEV 1.5gwh.

In 2017, China's electric vehicle market achieved a total installed capacity of 33.55GWh, with a year-on-year growth of 21%.

The pure electric passenger vehicle market achieved 12.74GWh, accounting for 37.96%, with a year-on-year growth of 60.79%.

The installed capacity of pure electric bus market was 12.33GWh, taking second place, accounting for 36.76%, down 18.76% year-on-year.

The market of pure electric special vehicles achieved an installed capacity of 6.19GWh, accounting for 18.45%, with a year-on-year growth of 99.75%, which is the fastest growing segment market.

The top 20 battery manufacturers have a combined installed capacity of 28.86GWh and a market share of 86.02%, which means that other battery manufacturers outside the top 20 have a combined market share of 13.98%.

3) EV Tank data made by brother wu (not updated yet) :

Simply put, the current investment in lithium-ion batteries is dangerous. Strictly speaking, the biggest risk is the follow-up continue vehicle enterprises continue to volume, not in the circle it is difficult to do. And the battery, has been a high investment in low profits, profits are in the front of the material and battery minerals here.

Bosch is now spending about €400m a year on breakthroughs in electric mobility, much of it on battery technology. And there's no way to have a say in the actual supply chain, no way to have a say in the core black technology to get customers to try your cell, especially the cost.

To put it bluntly, in this process leading to electrification, parts companies can not invest, but there is no profit; Vehicle companies have to invest, so we see Daimler, BMW, Volkswagen and Toyota all in. It's something that has to be done, it has to be done.

After careful consideration, Bosch of Germany has announced that it will give up the homemade power battery unit and provide the complete battery system to customers by outsourcing the battery unit and its own powerful battery management system technology and system integration capability.

4 reasons:

Market level: the global power battery market is dominated by five Asian companies (ningde times, panasonic of Japan, samsung of South Korea, LG of South Korea and BYD of shenzhen), and these companies have become the climate, Bosch will take a big market risk to put into production the battery unit at this time.

Technical level: the new technology of power battery changes fast, and the replacement is imminent. Lithium-ion batteries, dominated by liquid electrolytes, are not yet energy-dense enough to meet the needs of electric cars, and solid-state and next-generation lithium-ion technologies are not expected to mature until 2025.

Cost: 75% of the cost of battery unit comes from raw materials such as lithium. After processing, packaging, transportation and other expenses, profit margin is very limited. Once a price war starts, it can be said that we can't make much money.

Investment level: the global power battery capacity will reach 1000GkWh by 2030. If Bosch's market share is to reach 20%, at least 20 billion euros will be spent on the production, testing, recycling and other equipment of battery cells. If there is a revolutionary innovation in technology, the initial investment is likely to be lost.

In December, Bosch said it was considering investing 20 billion euros to bring its battery capacity to 200 GWH by 2030. Bosch considered the investment "high-risk" and decided to abandon the production plan or even divest the assets related to battery production entirely. Bosch decided to dissolve its two lithium-ion technology joint ventures, lithium energy and Power GmbH & Co. KG (LEAP), and sell its solid-state battery subsidiary Seeo.

In fact, it is a good idea to raise some existing battery enterprises through capital, and then integrate the team and resources. Then there are ups and downs, with the main product battery is the most important.